Uneasy Escalation on Two Fronts

On Friday night, March 13, the United States carried out a series of targeted airstrikes on military targets on the Iranian island of Kharg. Kharg Island is a strategic location in Iran’s oil infrastructure. The shores along Iran proper in the Persian Gulf are too shallow to accommodate the large tankers needed to move the oil, so they pipe the oil out to Kharg, where their large ports are. This strike,

although targeting only military sites, came dangerously close to a red line in the conflict that has not yet been crossed. This red line is the destruction of oil infrastructure. There have been a few rogue missiles that have hit storage facilities or tankers themselves, but there have been no deliberate attacks on oil fields or major transport infrastructure. Kharg Island is responsible for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, which account for around 5% of world oil, much of which goes to China. Striking this would destroy Iranian exports and would undoubtedly incur a large-scale retaliatory strike that could devastate the Gulf countries.

The world watched very closely Friday night as very specific targets were attacked and awaited Iran’s response. No oil targets were struck, but that did not stop Iran from issuing a stern warning against hitting the oil infrastructure. The situation with the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on the world economy and strains supply lines, but this damage can be undone in a matter of months once the waters are reopened. The damage that would result from the full destruction of large oil infrastructure, however, could deal a blow to global oil supplies for as much as a decade. At this point, that course of action has still not been pursued. Regardless, the strait remains closed as the United States looks for options to try to clear it.

On the Israeli front, they have opened all options on their northern border with Lebanon. After claiming that Hezbollah had begun joining in on the Iranian retaliation, they have been hitting targets

all over Lebanon, including in the capital city of Beirut. They have called for all civilians in Lebanon to move north of the Litani River for their safety. There has also been talk of a large-scale IDF ground operation in the area.