Iran Strengthens Their Hand as the Trump Administration Collects Itself

Tanker hit off the Iraqi coast (AP news)

With the beginning of the war in Iran being overwhelmingly one-sided for the past two weeks, the true threat of Iran is starting to manifest on the world stage. Iran has very little capability to oppose the United States in any conventional military conflict, but it is starting to put immense pressure on the economic battlefield, for which there may not be an effective answer from the aggressor in this war.

The Strait of Hormuz has become the number one issue on the world stage, as this chokepoint in oil supply has been virtually shut completely for nearly two weeks, causing global oil prices to soar today to 97 dollars a barrel, up from 65 dollars before the war. The number one priority of Iran is to keep this channel closed. This allows it to apply maximum pressure while doing very little. Toward this goal, it has begun laying sea mines in the strait and threatening to destroy any ships that attempt a crossing. The credibility of this threat has been backed up by the fact that two missiles slammed into tankers that were sitting in the gulf last night. This fear of destruction has kept the strait closed and forced this war into one of attrition, and it drives a wedge between the US and Israel.

In response to what may have been an unknown pressure, the Trump administration has streamlined its message and gotten everyone on the same page. Although they continue to dodge questions about the true scope and length of this conflict—for they may not know even themselves—they have now backed off the calls for an unconditional surrender by the regime and are now looking to achieve a “state of unconditional surrender,” where the country is deemed completely subdued and no longer a threat to the United States. This is a slight change of tone but significant in effect, and it may allow for some room to negotiate in the future as they look for an off-ramp while the pressure climbs.

Whatever each side is saying, one thing continues to be true as each day goes on: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the longer it is, the stronger a position Iran finds itself in. For a regime that is just looking to survive to win, Iran is not in a bad place. And for a country that is trying to end this war quickly before the missile interceptors run out and the world starts to panic, the temperature is heating up for the United States.

If Iran thinks it can shut down the Strait of Hormuz then we will hit them 20x harder than we have. We will secure our interests and kill all terrorists.

So, no plan? This is a mess. What even is the play here? Invade? try to make a deal? I can't wait to see how this plays out.

Popular support for this war is not there, and I'm still paying more for gas. This is starting to become more than annoying.

Another disaster by the Trump administration. Vote democrat in the midterm to bring this mess grinding to a halt.